@Article{SilvaGianAlme:2020:DyMoSu,
               author = "Silva, Camilla Almeida and Giannotti, Mariana and Almeida, 
                         Cl{\'a}udia Maria de",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Dynamic modeling to support an integrated analysis among land use 
                         change, accessibility and gentrification",
              journal = "Land Use Policy",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "99",
                pages = "e104992",
                month = "Dec.",
             keywords = "Urban land use transition, Gentrification, Accessibility, Cellular 
                         automata.",
             abstract = "The gentrification phenomenon is characterized by the replacement 
                         of the prevailing social class living in a residential area by 
                         another one with a higher income due to improvements in technical 
                         and social infrastructures, such as upgrades in the accessibility 
                         conditions. Gentrification is a matter of great concern, 
                         especially in big cities of developing countries, where 
                         infrastructure provision should not reinforce patterns of 
                         sociospatial segregation. The main motivation of this work is to 
                         verify if land use transitions could lead to possible 
                         gentrification, under the influence of accessibility-related 
                         variables such as the public transportation network, education and 
                         health equipments and the availability of employment. In order to 
                         represent a phenomenon that varies over time and space, the study 
                         proposes a dynamic modeling via cellular automata, using the 
                         validation of past simulations to measure the suitability of each 
                         accessibility variable to explain the observed land use 
                         transitions. The probability of each cell´s transition was 
                         calculated using the weights of evidence method considering the 
                         explanatory variables, based on the Bayes´ Theorem. The proposed 
                         model is applied in a case study that comprises districts in the 
                         southwestern sector of S{\~a}o Paulo city, Brazil, an area marked 
                         by the heterogeneity of its land use, with a considerable 
                         predominance of low-income dwellings. The work was based on 
                         spatial data from more than a decade (2000\−2016), which 
                         besides providing information on land use, also enable the 
                         categorization of residential and retail buildings according to 
                         their standard and size. The modeling process revealed that for 
                         different ranges of each variable, transition trends usually 
                         associated with gentrification took place, such as the increasing 
                         presence of retail and services, the construction of new buildings 
                         in previously nonresidential areas, the occupation of vacant land 
                         and the reduction of industrial use. However, observing the 
                         occurrence spots of those changes, it is reasonable to state that 
                         most of the occupation patterns found in each area tended to 
                         remain throughout the years, which means that low-income areas 
                         were not totally eliminated. Distinct levels of added value 
                         granted to the urban tissue were observed as a function of the 
                         predominant land use in each area highlighting the complexity of 
                         the relationship between urban form and gentrification. The 
                         satisfactory results in the model validation confirmed the good 
                         performance of the explaining variables in modeling the urban form 
                         dynamics within the study area.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104992",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104992",
                 issn = "0264-8377 and 1873-5754",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "silva_dynamic.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "17 maio 2024"
}